Thursday, October 22, 2015

How Russia's "humanitarian" intervention in Syria is related to the West

Russia's intervention in Syria is not primarily targeted on fighting the so-called Islamic State. It rather supports Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in his battle against other, sometimes moderate, rebel groups. This puts pressure on both the USA and the European Union. Especially the latter is struggling to uphold its liberal values in the face of a growing refugee crisis.

What pro-Russian observers of the Syrian civil war praise as a "humanitarian intervention" to stabilize the government and bring back peace to a war-torn country is actually just another one of Putin's strategic maneuvers to further consolidate Russian foreign policy interests confronting the West.

This map of the New York Times analyzes the current situation in Syria and shows where both Russia and the USA used their respective military forces to carry out airstrikes. The American Air Force aimed their strikes at IS-controlled territory, whereas Russia almost exclusively hit rebel groups in strategic areas where Syria's army afterwards began to carry out ground operations, often with the help of Russian military.
This shows that Russia is not actually interested in fighting the Islamic State and prevent further horrifying crimes against civilians and "infidels". Instead, Putin wants to display Russia's military power to the USA and show that he is capable of effectively engaging in the civil war, as opposed to American airstrikes who have so far only proven to be little effective. Putin also wants to help Assad's regime to get back on its feet to have a long-term ally in the Middle East.
When thinking about recent Russian engagement in Georgia, Ukraine or the Baltic States, this can be put into the context of an increasingly aggressive Russian foreign policy.

Another implication of Russia's engagement in Syria is yet another wave of refugees trying to escape from the civil war and looking for asylum in Europe.
This puts pressure on the European Union as more and more people cross the borders and move to wealthy countries such as France, Germany or England. EU border states such as Greece or Bulgaria have de facto abolished the Dublin II regulations and let refugees move to other European countries to not be responsible for their asylum applications.

In countries like Germany, liberal politicians have so far more or less managed to uphold a "refugees welcome"-policy that tries to reflect on the values of humanity and liberalism. Refugees from countries like Syria are granted shelter at least for a certain period of time. Right-winged opposition to this is growing but has not yet succeeded in overturning these principles.
In the face of the recent crisis of the Greek economy, European politicians know very well that even national economies have their limitations and might eventually collapse. The very large number of refugees may pose a serious problem to the economic power even of a country like Germany. This is why European politicians hesitate to put an end to the inhuman situation at Europe's borders such as the Mediterranean Sea where tens of thousands refugees have died already: The EU could not possibly handle the influx of all refugees without risking a collapse of its economic and social systems. They need to deter people from crossing EU borders in an inhuman way.
In summary, the dilemma of European liberals looks something like this: To be able to maintain a liberal attitude in domestic policies, they do little to prevent refugees from dying at the outer borders of the EU which is cynically not a very liberal thing to do.

To get back to my initial argument, Russia is certainly not unhappy with Europe's current situation. A struggling European Union might allow Putin to even further his aggressive foreign policy and destabilize the West.
Sadly enough, the ones who suffer the most from this are millions of Syrian people either stuck in a horrible civil war or struggling to make their way to Europe.

3 comments:

  1. Morten,
    You make an interesting argument about Russia's real motives and I agree with you. Your argument makes a lot of sense, especially with the maps from the New York Times. Further supporting your point, Russia has always had a close relationship with the Assad family since the 1970s. From a realist perspective, Russia is trying to become more of a regional hegemon and to do that they need to greatly reduce the power of some of the wealthier nations in the EU like England, France, and Germany. My only concern with Russia is, is this power grab worth the strain that it puts on Russia domestically? The Russian economy is currently suffering greatly and the Ruble isn't doing very well either. Do you think if Russia focused more on improving domestically and greatly increased their economic power in Europe they would be able to be more of a regional hegemon than England, France, and Germany? Or do you think Russia is better off thinking offensively?

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    1. That is an interesting question about Russia and I cannot give a compelling answer as I know too little about the country. What I know is that Putin is really pushing his aggressive foreign policy strategy with seemingly little regard to the social and economic situation back home. Russia's banks are having a hard time because of the sanctions and the economy is not doing too good either. But this seems to be Putin's way of "making Russia great again". He can rely on the support of his fellow countrymen who feel their country has been treated injustly ever since the fall of the soviet union.
      Putin is regarded as the "strong man" who puts Russia back on track and is finally making the country stand up to the West again. People seem to be so attracted by this nationalist ideology that the economy or social sitution doesn't really seem to matter (yet).
      We will see how this turns out for Putin, especially when the sanctions and international pressure will continue to have their impact on the country.

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  2. This is a very interesting topic and I ultimately agree with your argument. Russia is not only trying to protect its relationship and influence in Syria by supporting Assad, but Putin probably also aims to provoke the USA.
    However, I am not sure if I completely agree with your view that Russia is hoping to create another wave of immigrants for the EU to deal with. This would, as you said, put an immediate economic pressure on Europe and the EU. This is definitely true for Greece or Italy, with their already strained economy. However, using Germany as an example, in the long run, the immigrant wave may actually be benefice for Germany. If Germany succeeds in integrating the refugees into their society (which is of course difficult) then it could actually aid the German economy in the long run. Germany has an aging society and is lacking a motivated young workforce, and these refugees could be the solution.
    > While I do agree with you that Putin is definitely not interested with helping the European Union solve the issue of the influx of refugees, I do not necessary think that he is supporting Assad in order to create more immigrants to hurt the EU. This seems very intricate to me and possibly a bit farfetched.

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