Thursday, October 22, 2015

The Ultimate Power Couple


Ask any politician or economist where the future is and they will tell you: the Pacific. Even Hillary Clinton said it is America’s time to pivot to the Pacific, but for many nations, such as Russia, that pivot has been made. As of late, Russia and China have had an increasingly close relationship, one that could potentially threaten the Western domination of world power. Russia and China have come a long way from their disputes in the 1960s regarding Communism and territory. Ever since settling border disputes, the Russian-Sino relationship has been, for the most part, on an upward trend. Both nations realize the benefits that come hand in hand with their alliance, and neither nation is willing to jeopardize it, at the moment. China has the wealth and Russia has the natural resources, and this combination has led to billions of dollars in natural gas deals. Also, China and Russia both have a strong disregard for conforming to the wants of the west. On their own, these two nations pose a possible threat, but not nearly as powerful like the threat created when they unite.
            There are speculations that China will be the next world superpower and take over the West. However, when looking at soft power, their demographics pose a large issue, except Russia may have a solution to this problem. China is incredibly over-populated and its next step might be to expand, and Russia’s under-populated Siberia is right next door. Russia does not have the money to pave their own roads, let alone invest in Siberia which is basically dead weight for Russia. So for the Chinese, having Siberia seems like a viable option. The Chinese are not only after the land occupied by Siberia but rather the untapped resources within it. China knows those resources are there and if at some point the benefits of Siberian resources outweigh a relationship with Russia, China will not hesitate to take over that area of land. When combined, Russia and China have a strong and lethal alliance when it comes to other superpowers. Both nations want what is the most beneficial and for their nation economically regardless of what that entails. In addition, both Russia and China have become nations with limited freedoms and increasing propaganda. The similarities between Russia and China make it seem obvious that Putin and Xi Jinping would get along.
            Russia and China share a common anti-West sentiment. It is difficult for Russia and the United States to have a strong relationship because they disagree so readily on issues regarding human rights and political systems. China and Russia, on the other hand, do not. During Soviet times, China disliked Russia’s willingness to live peacefully with capitalist societies and believed for Communism to spread, there must be a much more aggressive policy to spread the communist revolution. However, currently this disagreement is no longer an issue. Russia and China are now both equally anti-West and both use the West as a scapegoat. In China, the people of Hong Kong cry for democracy from a government that lacks transparency with their population. These cries are blamed on America’s attempt to undermine China. Very similarly, protests in Kiev during the Ukraine Crisis were blamed on America’s attempt to undermine Moscow. Both China and Russia rely heavily on propaganda and both are more than willing to go after those who pose a threat to their governments. These commonalities make it much easier for Russia and China to have a strong, powerful relationship. Both nations are similarly anti-West, both nations value propaganda, and both nations want what will economically benefit their nations, no matter the cost.
            As we can see from these two examples, the time of the Pacific has arrived. Russia and China have put into motion an extremely beneficial relationship that is bound to flourish. Neither Russia nor China values human rights, and both rely on propaganda, making these two nations similar and therefore more likely to cooperate with one another. They are also willing to work side by side without creating conflict. Also, Russia and China are economically dependent on each and have a mainly business relationship so they will not try to have political influence over one another, thus creating a relationship that is much harder to ruin. However, one can argue that perhaps disputes of the past could be brought up again. During the era of the Soviet Union, the two nations disagreed whole-heartedly on the ideology of Communism, and the two nations approached the political system differently. Although great strides have been taken towards a stable relationship between the two nations, their unstable history suggests that their current relationship has the possibility of going astray. But, for the time being it is clear Putin has officially made the pivot towards China, and will continue to focus on Russia and China’s relationship.


7 comments:

  1. Maddy,

    The idea of Russia letting the Chinese repopulate siberia is an interesting one but brings up a few questions. First, would a country that just annexed Crimea because they see it as part of the motherland allow teh Chinese to take Siberia? Second, why would the Chinese want Siberia if it is so unhospitable?

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    1. Well China is not necessarily after the land, but, Sibera has a lot of untapped resources that they are after. China knows that those resources are there and if at some point the benefits of Siberian resources outweigh a relationship with Russia, China will not hesitate to take that area of land.

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  2. Maddy,
    This was really interesting to read! Something that immediately struck me after reading this was how their growing relationship would affect the matters vetoed in the UN Security Council, as Russia and China are two of the five permanent members. Would they both make more decisions together? What effects would that have?
    I think it's also interesting to look at their relationship from a realist point of view. You mention that they have a "lethal" alliance. Do you think that their continued relationship would be sustainable without the other feeling that their security is threatened? I feel that the alliance between them could either get stronger if they worked together or could completely turn sour if they suddenly become threatened by each other.

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    1. Definitely. I think that with their history during Soviet times and their current situation with the Middle East, their relationship could definitely take a turnBoth China and Russia share a common interest in the Middle East. With Russia involved with Iran, and China involved with Afghanistan and, there exists a possibility of conflict between China and Russia. However, I think that instead of conflict, Russia and China will create deals in the future regarding the Middle East that are beneficial to both nations, thus exemplifying their strong relationship.

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    2. I think that the future of Russian-Sino relations might also depend on how well both countries manage to establish further economic ties. In 2015 so far, the trade between the two countries has dropped by 30% and especially China seems to be somewhat reluctant to connect its economy to Russia.
      Also, the approach that both countries have on their respective relations with the West seems to be a little different; China is much more cautious right now compared to Russia.

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  3. Your argument is very well organized and believable. It makes me wonder, what will happen to the US has this new power couple rises? For so long, the US has been one of the top powers. It will likely to continue to be, but with power threats that we have never seen. Will the Security Dilemma lead to changes in US policy to increase our security? Will it lead to war? How will the government change and how will citizens be affected? This is an intriguing idea that is scary, but it is interesting to look towards the future.

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  4. This is a very convincing and fairly scary argument. Russia and China seem to be increasingly interested in improving their relations and if they continue that way, they can definitely be a legitimate threat. Adding on to the questions Emma poses, about how this will affect the United States. How should the US handle this? Should we take preventative measures sooner rather than later? How would this change occur? Could we find diplomatic or economic solutions? This is a convincing argument that poses an array of questions as to the action the US should take and when those actions should occur.

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